Kerala - Kochi
Exit polls predict clear majority for LDF

Staff Reporter

Left Democratic Front likely to get close to 100 seats

KOCHI: The India Vision-A.C. Nielson Exit Poll, conducted among the voters after the last phase of polling for the Kerala Assembly elections on Wednesday, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) will get 12 out of the 15 seats in Kannur and Kasaragod districts. The United Democratic Front (UDF) will get only three seats. No other parties or Independents will get any seat.

The exit poll has predicted a clear majority for the LDF in the State. According to the exit poll, the LDF will win a total of 99 out of the 140 Assembly seats in 14 districts.

The exit poll, conducted by the leading international marketing research agency on the voters, predicts that the UDF would get only 40 seats, which would mean the front, which got 98 seats in the last Assembly elections will lose 58 seats.

The LDF, which got only 39 seats in the last Assembly elections, would make an increase of 60 seats, to capture 99 constituencies, according to the exit poll results. The exit poll also predicts that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will not gain any seats in this Assembly also. One seat will go to an Independent candidate.

The LDF will get 52 per cent votes, marking 13 per cent swing towards the front. But the UDF, gaining only 40.6 per cent votes, will experience a negative swing of 7.4 per cent. The BJP will get four per cent votes, which means it will lose one per cent votes. Others or Independent candidates, who will get 3.4 per cent votes, will also lose 4.6 per cent.

The hold of LDF over both urban and rural voters, as well as among the male and female voters shown in the exit polls conducted after the first and second phases of polling will continue after the final round of voting also. In the urban areas, LDF has a support of 52.6 per cent, while the UDF could muster the backing of only 39.5 per cent. In the rural areas, the LDF has 51.9 per cent support, with the UDF getting only 40.9 per cent voters' support.

Among women, 49.4 per cent support LDF, while only 44.7 women back the UDF. Among men also, LDF has a hold with 53.6 per cent support but the UDF will get only 38.2 per cent support. Among the young voters below 24 years, 51.8 per cent are with the LDF, while only 39.4 per cent are with the UDF. Among the voters in the age group of 25-35, LDF has a support base of 51.6 per cent, while the UDF can command the support of only 40.5 per cent in this group.

Among the voters aged above 36, the LDF has the support of 52.4 per cent, while only 41.1 per cent support the UDF.

March-Asianet
According to the exit poll conducted by March-Asianet, the LDF will win 10 to 14 of the 15 seats in the districts of Kannur and Kasaragod which figured in the third and final phase of the election today. The UDF will get one to five seats and the BJP will come a cropper. The LDF will get 49 per cent, the UDF 43 per cent, the BJP 6 per cent and the others 2 per cent of the votes. It found a 7 to 9 per cent swing in the Christian votes in favour of the LDF.

At the State level, the poll found that the LDF would get 90 to 100 seats and the UDF 45 to 55 seats. The share of the total votes will be 47 per cent for LDF, 45 for UDF and 5 per cent for BJP.

The opinion survey of the team had found the difference between the LDF and the UDF to be 5 per cent. At the time of the exit poll, it had gone down to 3.89 per cent.

Jeevan TV-Sreyesmedia
The Jeevan TV-Sreyesmedia exit poll found that the LDF will get 10 to 12 and the UDF 3 to 5 of the 15 seats to which polling was held during the third phase. The share of votes is 50.3 for LDF, 40.1 for UDF and BJP 8 per cent.
t the State level, the LDF will win 106 to 109 seats and the UDF 31 to 34 seats.
(The Hindu, May 04, 2006)